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Title: Understanding Uncertainties in the Economic Feasibility of Transportation Fuel Production using Biomass Gasification and Mixed Alcohol Synthesis

This analysis evaluates uncertainties of previously conducted techno-economic analysis of transportation fuel production via biomass gasification and mixed alcohol synthesis. Two scenarios are considered: a state-of-technology scenario utilizing existing technologies and a target scenario representing future advancements in related technologies. Uncertainties of more than ten parameters are investigated, including feedstock price, internal rate of return (IRR), etc. Historical price data of these parameters are fitted with the most appropriate distribution and datasets are generated for each parameter accordingly. These data sets are then utilized to run a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results yield minimum fuel selling prices of $7.02/gal with a standard deviation of 0.49 for the state-of-technology scenario and $4.33/gal with a standard deviation of 0.42 for the target scenario respectively. Feedstock price and IRR have significant impact on the minimum fuel selling price in both scenarios. These findings are indicative of the reduction in biofuel cost and uncertainty achievable with increasing technology maturity.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [2] ;  [2]
  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50010 USA
  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50010 USA; Bioeconomy Institute, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50012 USA
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA 99352 USA
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1324904
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-112471
Journal ID: ISSN 2194-4288; BM0102060
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Energy Technology; Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: 3
Publisher:
Wiley
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Biomass; Bioenergy; gasification; syngas; mixed alcohols; hydrocarbon fuels; distillates