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Title: Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

Journal Article · · Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405· OSTI ID:1324174
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  1. Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Normal Univ., Shanghai (China)
  5. Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)
  6. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  7. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  8. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  9. Unite Mixte de Rechereche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), Toulouse Cedex (France)
  10. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  11. Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  12. CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Univ.-Grenoble Alpes/CNRS, Grenoble (France)
  13. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China)
  14. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)
  15. Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)
  16. GAME, Unite Mixte de Recherche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), Toulouse Cedex (France)
  17. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
  18. CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  19. Univ.-Grenoble Alpes/CNRS, Grenoble (France); Irstea, Villeurbanne Cedex (France)
  20. Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China)
  21. Univ.-Grenoble Alpes/CNRS, Grenoble (France)
  22. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  23. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
  24. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  25. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr -1 ). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr -1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1324174
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1439996
Journal Information:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 7; ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 97 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Physically Accurate Soil Freeze-Thaw Processes in a Global Land Surface Scheme journal January 2018
Spatiotemporal variations of annual shallow soil temperature on the Tibetan Plateau during 1983–2013 journal November 2017
Interactions Between Land-Use Change and Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks journal April 2018
Taliks: A Tipping Point in Discontinuous Permafrost Degradation in Peatlands journal November 2019
The Role of Permafrost in Eurasian Land‐Atmosphere Interactions journal November 2019
Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone journal January 2020
Decadal soil carbon accumulation across Tibetan permafrost regions journal May 2017
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century journal December 2018
Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes journal July 2019
Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape journal October 2018
Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO 2 amplification over northern lands journal November 2018
Where is the residual terrestrial carbon sink? journal June 2018
Biotic responses buffer warming-induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra journal June 2018
Arctic Vegetation Mapping Using Unsupervised Training Datasets and Convolutional Neural Networks journal January 2019
A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions journal January 2017
ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation journal January 2018
Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions journal January 2018
The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges journal January 2018
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison journal January 2020
Uncertainties in coupled regional Arctic climate simulations associated with the used land surface model: Atmosphere and Permafrost in HIRHAM5-CLM4 journal August 2017
The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2016
Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks journal July 2018
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Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change journal March 2018
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Peatland vegetation composition and phenology drive the seasonal trajectory of maximum gross primary production journal May 2018
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Year-round simulated methane emissions from a permafrost ecosystem in Northeast Siberia journal January 2018
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2017
Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau journal May 2020
Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems journal February 2020
Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean journal January 2018

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