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Title: Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

Abstract

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, andmore » emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1290399
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115402
Journal ID: ISSN 2212-4209; TE1104000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 18; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2212-4209
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Veeramany, Arun, Unwin, Stephen D., Coles, Garill A., Dagle, Jeffery E., Millard, David W., Yao, Juan, Glantz, Cliff S., and Gourisetti, Sri N. G. Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.008.
Veeramany, Arun, Unwin, Stephen D., Coles, Garill A., Dagle, Jeffery E., Millard, David W., Yao, Juan, Glantz, Cliff S., & Gourisetti, Sri N. G. Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.008
Veeramany, Arun, Unwin, Stephen D., Coles, Garill A., Dagle, Jeffery E., Millard, David W., Yao, Juan, Glantz, Cliff S., and Gourisetti, Sri N. G. 2016. "Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.008.
@article{osti_1290399,
title = {Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions},
author = {Veeramany, Arun and Unwin, Stephen D. and Coles, Garill A. and Dagle, Jeffery E. and Millard, David W. and Yao, Juan and Glantz, Cliff S. and Gourisetti, Sri N. G.},
abstractNote = {Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.06.008},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1290399}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
issn = {2212-4209},
number = C,
volume = 18,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Jun 25 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Sat Jun 25 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}