Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003

Title: Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article · Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003· OSTI ID:1275965

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.

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Research Organization:: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0006704; CHE-1314040

OSTI ID:: 1275965

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1275966; OSTI ID: 1326675

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 8; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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Cited by: 340 works

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