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Title: Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

Journal Article · · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10]; ORCiD logo [11];  [12]; ORCiD logo [13];  [14];  [15];  [8]
  1. Univ. of Chile, Santiago (Chile); Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris (France)
  2. Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC-CNS, Barcelona (Spain)
  3. Univ. of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (Germany)
  4. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  6. Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET), Barcelona (Spain)
  7. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  8. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia)
  9. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia); Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Barcelona (Spain)
  10. National Hydrometeorological Service, Belgrade (Serbia); Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)
  11. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
  12. Izana Atmospheric Research Center, State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Spain)
  13. Technical Univ. of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain); Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC-CNS, Barcelona (Spain)
  14. Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Barcelona (Spain); Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Zaragoza (Spain)
  15. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom); Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS/UPMC, Paris (France)
+ Show Author Affiliations

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

Research Organization:
University of Chile, Santiago (Chile)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006713
OSTI ID:
1266058
Journal Information:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Vol. 16, Issue 8; ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 27 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (13)

Synoptic analysis and simulation of an unusual dust event over the Atacama Desert journal April 2019
Effects of Extreme Dust Storm in Agricultural Areas (Poland, the Greater Lowland) journal February 2019
Modification of Local Urban Aerosol Properties by Long-Range Transport of Biomass Burning Aerosol journal March 2018
Profiling of Saharan dust from the Caribbean to western Africa – Part 2: Shipborne lidar measurements versus forecasts journal January 2017
Three-dimensional evolution of Saharan dust transport towards Europe based on a 9-year EARLINET-optimized CALIPSO dataset journal January 2017
Can explicit convection improve modelled dust in summertime West Africa? journal January 2018
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity journal January 2019
Aerosol optical depth comparison between GAW-PFR and AERONET-Cimel radiometers from long-term (2005–2015) 1 min synchronous measurements journal January 2019
Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue observations in the dust aerosol component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0 journal January 2017
Multimodel simulations of a springtime dust storm over northeastern China: implications of an evaluation of four commonly used air quality models (CMAQ v5.2.1, CAMx v6.50, CHIMERE v2017r4, and WRF-Chem v3.9.1) journal January 2019
Status and future of numerical atmospheric aerosol prediction with a focus on data requirements text January 2018
Status and future of numerical atmospheric aerosol prediction with a focus on data requirements text January 2018
Synoptic analysis and simulation of an unusual dust event over the Atacama Desert text January 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
convective adjustment scheme
saharan dust
mineral dust
mediterranean basin
aerosol characterization
radiative impact
middle-east
desert dust
system
cycle