Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing
Abstract
Abstract The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity‐normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity‐normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
- Authors:
-
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1259257
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1400452
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/JA-5J00-65394
Journal ID: ISSN 1062-7995
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308; DE‐AC36‐08GO28308
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Progress in Photovoltaics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1062-7995
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 42 ENGINEERING; photovoltaics; manufacturing; Capex
Citation Formats
Basore, Paul A. Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/pip.2761.
Basore, Paul A. Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2761
Basore, Paul A. 2016.
"Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2761. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1259257.
@article{osti_1259257,
title = {Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing},
author = {Basore, Paul A.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity‐normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity‐normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
doi = {10.1002/pip.2761},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1259257},
journal = {Progress in Photovoltaics},
issn = {1062-7995},
number = 7,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
Web of Science
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Works referencing / citing this record:
Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA
journal, February 2018
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Passivating contacts for crystalline silicon solar cells
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