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Title: Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing

Abstract

Abstract The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity‐normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity‐normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1259257
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1400452
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5J00-65394
Journal ID: ISSN 1062-7995
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308; DE‐AC36‐08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Progress in Photovoltaics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1062-7995
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 42 ENGINEERING; photovoltaics; manufacturing; Capex

Citation Formats

Basore, Paul A. Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/pip.2761.
Basore, Paul A. Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2761
Basore, Paul A. 2016. "Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2761. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1259257.
@article{osti_1259257,
title = {Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing},
author = {Basore, Paul A.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity‐normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity‐normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
doi = {10.1002/pip.2761},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1259257}, journal = {Progress in Photovoltaics},
issn = {1062-7995},
number = 7,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}

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Cited by: 5 works
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Works referenced in this record:

Modeling the Cost and Minimum Sustainable Price of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Manufacturing in the United States
journal, April 2013


Understanding Manufacturing Cost Influence on Future Trends in Silicon Photovoltaics
journal, November 2014


The capital intensity of photovoltaics manufacturing: barrier to scale and opportunity for innovation
journal, January 2015


Assessing the drivers of regional trends in solar photovoltaic manufacturing
journal, January 2013


Technology advances needed for photovoltaics to achieve widespread grid price parity: Widespread grid price parity for photovoltaics
journal, April 2016


Economics of future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing
conference, June 2015

  • Basore, Paul A.; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio
  • 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)
  • https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355620

Works referencing / citing this record:

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA
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Passivating contacts for crystalline silicon solar cells
journal, September 2019