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Title: Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

Journal Article · · Climatic Change
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Asheville, NC (United States). National Centers for Environmental Information
  2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring,MD (United States). Climate Program Office
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Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1255379
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-116569; KP1703030
Journal Information:
Climatic Change, Vol. 135, Issue 1; ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
SpringerCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (9)

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments journal November 2010
Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century journal March 2011
Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California journal August 2004
Learning from the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts journal December 2005
A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise journal January 2007
Participatory methods of integrated assessment-a review: Participatory methods of integrated assessment journal September 2010
Ice Sheets and Sea Level: Thinking Outside the Box journal June 2011
Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States journal January 2002
Response to Comments on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise" journal September 2007

Cited By (4)

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable text January 2019
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable text January 2019
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable journal January 2019
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable text January 2019

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