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Title: A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067392· OSTI ID:1255375
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Here, the model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1255375
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1402158
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115451; KP1703010
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 3; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 101 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region journal October 2018
North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends journal September 2019
Importance of the El Niño Teleconnection to the 21st Century California Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Increase journal October 2018
Atmospheric Rivers Increase Future Flood Risk in Western Canada's Largest Pacific River journal February 2019
Freezing Rain Events Related to Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Mechanisms for Western North America journal September 2019
Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers journal February 2017
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California journal April 2018
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions journal September 2017
Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers journal July 2019
Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity journal April 2018
Uncovering the role of the East Asian jet stream and heterogeneities in atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States journal January 2018
Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers journal May 2019
Meteorological and environmental variables affect flight behaviour and decision-making of an obligate soaring bird, the California Condor Gymnogyps californianus journal October 2017
Multiple, Compounding Disturbances in a Forest Ecosystem: Fire Increases Susceptibility of Soil Edaphic Properties, Bacterial Community Structure, and Function to Change with Extreme Precipitation Event journal June 2019
Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design journal January 2018
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 journal January 2016

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
atmospheric rivers
extreme precipitation
climate change
global warming
moisture transport
flooding