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Title: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

Abstract

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1243258
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-111360
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; 400408000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 131; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

McFarland, James, Zhou, Yuyu, Clarke, Leon, Sullivan, Patrick, Colman, Jesse, Jaglom, Wendy S., Colley, Michelle, Patel, Pralit, Eom, Jiyon, Kim, Son H., Kyle, G. Page, Schultz, Peter, Venkatesh, Boddu, Haydel, Juanita, Mack, Charlotte, and Creason, Jared. Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8.
McFarland, James, Zhou, Yuyu, Clarke, Leon, Sullivan, Patrick, Colman, Jesse, Jaglom, Wendy S., Colley, Michelle, Patel, Pralit, Eom, Jiyon, Kim, Son H., Kyle, G. Page, Schultz, Peter, Venkatesh, Boddu, Haydel, Juanita, Mack, Charlotte, & Creason, Jared. Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8
McFarland, James, Zhou, Yuyu, Clarke, Leon, Sullivan, Patrick, Colman, Jesse, Jaglom, Wendy S., Colley, Michelle, Patel, Pralit, Eom, Jiyon, Kim, Son H., Kyle, G. Page, Schultz, Peter, Venkatesh, Boddu, Haydel, Juanita, Mack, Charlotte, and Creason, Jared. 2015. "Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8.
@article{osti_1243258,
title = {Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison},
author = {McFarland, James and Zhou, Yuyu and Clarke, Leon and Sullivan, Patrick and Colman, Jesse and Jaglom, Wendy S. and Colley, Michelle and Patel, Pralit and Eom, Jiyon and Kim, Son H. and Kyle, G. Page and Schultz, Peter and Venkatesh, Boddu and Haydel, Juanita and Mack, Charlotte and Creason, Jared},
abstractNote = {The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1243258}, journal = {Climatic Change},
issn = {0165-0009},
number = 1,
volume = 131,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps
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Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns
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Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050
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Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
journal, June 2019


Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States
journal, April 2019


Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States
journal, November 2016


Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States
journal, July 2019


Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes
journal, November 2019


Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas
journal, January 2020


Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps
journal, August 2018


Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States
journal, April 2019