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Title: Effectiveness of Mitigation Measures in Reducing Future Primary Particulate Matter Emissions from On-Road Vehicle Exhaust

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation ofmore » advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa« less
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology; Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 24
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Research Org:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)
Sponsoring Org:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); U.S. Department of Agriculture - National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Country of Publication:
United States