Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate
Abstract
© 2014. The Authors. The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models. Key Points: Multimodel comparison of tropical cyclone activity in global climate models Geographic distribution of the TC activity is similar to observed Most models produce tropical cyclones weaker than observed
- Authors:
-
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York New York USA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York New York USA, Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University New York New York USA
- Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University New York New York USA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York New York USA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA, Now at Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
- NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center College Park Maryland USA
- Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University Tallahassee Florida USA
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, GMAO GreenBelt Maryland USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/I.M. Systems Group Greenbelt Maryland USA
- International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu Hawaii USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA
- Met Office, Hadley Center Devon UK
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Bologna Italy, Centro Euro‐Mediterraneosui Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna Italy
- NCAS‐Climate, University of Reading Reading UK
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California USA
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton New Jersey USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1237126
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1213530; OSTI ID: 1237127; OSTI ID: 1407223
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AGS-1143959; NASA NNX09AK34
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article: Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1942-2466
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, and Henderson, Naomi. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate. United States: N. p., 2014.
Web. doi:10.1002/2014MS000372.
Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, & Henderson, Naomi. Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000372
Shaevitz, Daniel A., Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Jonas, Jeffrey A., Kim, Daehyun, Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Lim, Young‐Kwon, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., Zhao, Ming, and Henderson, Naomi. 2014.
"Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000372.
@article{osti_1237126,
title = {Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate},
author = {Shaevitz, Daniel A. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Sobel, Adam H. and Jonas, Jeffrey A. and Kim, Daehyun and Kumar, Arun and LaRow, Timothy E. and Lim, Young‐Kwon and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Reed, Kevin A. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Wang, Hui and Wehner, Michael F. and Zhao, Ming and Henderson, Naomi},
abstractNote = {© 2014. The Authors. The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models. Key Points: Multimodel comparison of tropical cyclone activity in global climate models Geographic distribution of the TC activity is similar to observed Most models produce tropical cyclones weaker than observed},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000372},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1237126},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
issn = {1942-2466},
number = 4,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Fri Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis
journal, January 2012
- Prabhat, ; Rübel, Oliver; Byna, Surendra
- Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 9
T ROPICAL C YCLONES
journal, May 2003
- Emanuel, Kerry
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 31, Issue 1
Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
journal, August 2011
- Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 16
An Objective Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Size Climatology
journal, January 2014
- Knaff, John A.; Longmore, Scott P.; Molenar, Debra A.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 1
Tropical cyclones and climate change
journal, February 2010
- Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3
How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?
journal, January 2007
- Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, Kevin I.; Esch, Monika
- Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 59, Issue 4
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global-Scale Forcings
journal, June 2014
- Villarini, Gabriele; Lavers, David A.; Scoccimarro, Enrico
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12
The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
journal, January 2011
- Walters, D. N.; Best, M. J.; Bushell, A. C.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 4
An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement
journal, December 2010
- Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 23
Equilibrium Tropical Cyclone Size in an Idealized State of Axisymmetric Radiative–Convective Equilibrium*
journal, May 2014
- Chavas, Daniel R.; Emanuel, Kerry
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 71, Issue 5
Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive: GISS MODEL-E2 CMIP5 SIMULATIONS
journal, March 2014
- Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Max; Nazarenko, Larissa
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Investigating Global Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hierarchy of AGCMs: The Role of Model Resolution
journal, January 2013
- Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 1
Tracking Scheme Dependence of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Response to Idealized Climate Simulations
journal, December 2014
- Horn, Michael; Walsh, Kevin; Zhao, Ming
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24
Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models
journal, December 2013
- Camargo, Suzana J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 24
Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
journal, April 2009
- Camargo, Suzana J.; Barnston, Anthony G.
- Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 24, Issue 2
The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO 2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures
journal, October 2011
- Held, Isaac M.; Zhao, Ming
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 20
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations
journal, July 2008
- LaRow, T. E.; Lim, Y-K.; Shin, D. W.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 13
Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM
journal, December 2009
- Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24
Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format
journal, October 2013
- Landsea, Christopher W.; Franklin, James L.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 10
Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model
journal, October 1982
- Bengtsson, L.; BÖTtger, H.; Kanamitsu, M.
- Tellus, Vol. 34, Issue 5
Objective Detection of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Analyses
journal, August 1997
- Walsh, Kevin
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 125, Issue 8
Climate Simulations Using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km Grid
journal, January 2012
- Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Murakami, Hiroyuki
- Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 90A, Issue 0
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM
journal, May 2012
- Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wang, Yuqing; Yoshimura, Hiromasa
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models
journal, December 2002
- Camargo, Suzana J.; Zebiak, Stephen E.
- Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 17, Issue 6
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
journal, January 2003
- Rayner, N. A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14
The Interannual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific
journal, October 2002
- Chia, Hsin Hsing; Ropelewski, C. F.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 20
Response of Tropical Cyclones to Idealized Climate Change Experiments in a Global High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
journal, October 2013
- Bell, Ray; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 20
ENSO and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity simulated in a CGCM
journal, November 2007
- Iizuka, Satoshi; Matsuura, Tomonori
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 30, Issue 7-8
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall over Mozambique
journal, December 2003
- Vitart, Frédéric; Anderson, David; Stockdale, Tim
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 16, Issue 23
Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses
journal, January 2007
- Bengtsson, L.; Hodges, K. I.; Esch, M.
- Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 59, Issue 4
Intense Precipitation Events Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Response to a Warmer Climate and Increased CO 2
journal, June 2014
- Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio; Villarini, Gabriele
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 12
Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP: SEASONAL FORECAST OF TROPICAL STORMS
journal, August 2007
- Vitart, F.; Huddleston, M. R.; Déqué, M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 16
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
journal, January 2010
- Bender, M. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Tuleya, R. E.
- Science, Vol. 327, Issue 5964
Spherical Nonparametric Estimators Applied to the UGAMP Model Integration for AMIP
journal, December 1996
- Hodges, K. I.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 124, Issue 12
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1
journal, November 2014
- Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Adaptive Constraints for Feature Tracking
journal, June 1999
- Hodges, K. I.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 127, Issue 6
Observed versus GCM-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using a Spatial Lattice
journal, November 2013
- Strazzo, Sarah; Elsner, James B.; LaRow, Timothy
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 21
On the size distribution of Atlantic tropical cyclones
journal, January 2009
- Dean, L.; Emanuel, K. A.; Chavas, D. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 14
A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models
journal, August 2005
- Camargo, Suzana J.; Barnston, Anthony G.; Zebiak, Stephen E.
- Tellus A, Vol. 57, Issue 4
Tropical Circulation in a Time-Integration of a Global Model of the Atmosphere
journal, July 1970
- Manabe, Syukuro; Holloway, J. Leith; Stone, Hugh M.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 27, Issue 4
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
journal, March 2014
- Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Wu, Xingren
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6
A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size: TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE DISTRIBUTION
journal, September 2010
- Chavas, D. R.; Emanuel, K. A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 18
Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
journal, July 2013
- Emanuel, K. A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 30
Simulation of Interannual Variability of Tropical Storm Frequency in an Ensemble of GCM Integrations
journal, April 1997
- Vitart, F.; Anderson, J. L.; Stern, W. F.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 4