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Title: Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology

The fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill 100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout) radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing material between fallout particles and exposed people. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a) multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to (a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b) evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies. This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology, highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1]
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1236135
Report Number(s):
LLNL--TR-675990
DOE Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Research Org:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGANISMS AND BIOLOGICAL MATERIALS; 61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOCIMETRY; 45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; 63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGANISMS AND BIOLOGICAL MATERIALS; 22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS