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Title: Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging biorefinery technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. Stochastic simulations based on process and economic parameter distributions are applied to calculate biorefinery performance and production costs. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $4.20 per gallon with a standard deviation of 1.15, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($4.27 per gallon and 0.79 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic risk than in situ pyrolysis despite a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are significant parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.
Authors:
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1226409
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-111391
BM0102060
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Bioresource Technology, 196:49-56
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Biomass; biofuels; fast pyrolysis; hydrotreating; catalytic pyrolysis; techno-economics; uncertainty analysis; monte carlo; prolysis; In situ; Ex situ; Techno-economics analysis; Uncertainty analysis