skip to main content

Title: Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.
Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1215163
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5D00-63876
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 26-30 July 2015, Denver, Colorado
Research Org:
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
Sponsoring Org:
Solar FOA funded by DOE
Contributing Orgs:
IBM TJ Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York; Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts; University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona; Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, Illinois; U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY grid integration; numerical weather prediction; operating reserve; ramp forecasting; solar power forecasting; National Renewable Energy Laboratory