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Title: Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billionsmore » of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.« less
Authors:
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1215141
Report Number(s):
NREL/PR-6A20-63808
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review, 23-27 March 2015, Alexandria, Virginia
Research Org:
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
09 BIOMASS FUELS BIOMASS SCENARIO MODEL; BSM; BIOFUELS; BIOENERGY; SUPPLY CHAIN; POLICY; SYSTEM-DYNAMICS; BIOFUELS INDUSTRY