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Title: Uncertainty Quantification in Dynamic Simulations of Large-scale Power System Models using the High-Order Probabilistic Collocation Method on Sparse Grids

This paper proposes a probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to quantify the uncertainties with dynamic simulations in power systems. The appraoch was tested on a single-machine-infinite-bus system and the over 15,000 -bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. Comparing to classic Monte-Carlo (MC) method, the proposed PCM applies the Smolyak algorithm to reduce the number of simulations that have to be performed. Therefore, the computational cost can be greatly reduced using PCM. The algorithm and procedures are described in the paper. Comparison was made with MC method on the single machine as well as the WECC system. The simulation results shows that using PCM only a small number of sparse grid points need to be sampled even when dealing with systems with a relatively large number of uncertain parameters. PCM is, therefore, computationally more efficient than MC method.
Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1194316
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-80162
KJ0401000
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification, 4(3):185-204
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Uncertainty quantification, parameter estimation, Monte Carlo method, probabilistic collocation method, generalized polynomial chaos