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Title: Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.
Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1184958
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-105745
KP1703010
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters, 42(2):572-578
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
North Atlantic-Mediterranean; tropical Atlantic; hurricane; monsoon; African