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Title: Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change

Abstract

Anthropogenically-driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature . The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt . We find that current trends in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25±0.05 (1σ) °C per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous 1-2 millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1182918
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-93187
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Smith, Steven J., Edmonds, James A., Hartin, Corinne A., Mundra, Anupriya, and Calvin, Katherine V. Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1038/nclimate2552.
Smith, Steven J., Edmonds, James A., Hartin, Corinne A., Mundra, Anupriya, & Calvin, Katherine V. Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2552
Smith, Steven J., Edmonds, James A., Hartin, Corinne A., Mundra, Anupriya, and Calvin, Katherine V. 2015. "Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2552.
@article{osti_1182918,
title = {Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change},
author = {Smith, Steven J. and Edmonds, James A. and Hartin, Corinne A. and Mundra, Anupriya and Calvin, Katherine V.},
abstractNote = {Anthropogenically-driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature . The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt . We find that current trends in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25±0.05 (1σ) °C per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous 1-2 millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2552},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1182918}, journal = {Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}