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Title: Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.

Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1177060
Report Number(s):
SAND2014--5039
532917
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Research Org:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES