Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Journal Article · Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2015 · Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016· OSTI ID:1170047

Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils; Bertram, Christoph; den Elzen, Michel; Eom, Jiyong; Schaeffer, Michiel; Edmonds, James A.; Isaac, Morna; Krey, Volker; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Mejean, Aurelie; McCollum, David; Mima, Silvana; Turton, Hal; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wada, Kenichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Capros, Pantelis ; Criqui, Patrick; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kainuma, M.; Edenhofer, Ottmar

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1170047
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-93395; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23, Journal Name: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English