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Title: Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [1] ;  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1166680
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-96599
Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 9-10; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; MONSOONS; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATION; African; monsoon; precipitation; model; simulations; land use change; land cover change; African Easterly Jet; land degradation; crop land; pasture land; regional model simulations; land surface models