skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Abstract

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [6];  [7];  [3];  [5];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [8];  [12];  [7];  [13];  [12]
  1. Organization for Ecomonic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (France)
  2. Univ. of Sussex, Brighton (United Kingdom)
  3. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra (Australia)
  4. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  7. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Austria)
  8. Postdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  9. International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States)
  10. International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Champaign, IL (United States)
  11. Economic Research Service (ERS), Washington, DC (United States)
  12. Wageningen Univ. and Research Center (Netherlands)
  13. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationas (FAO), Roma (Italy)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1158485
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-96185
Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5150; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Agricultural Economics, 45(1):3-20
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5150
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; computable general equilibrium; partial equilibrium; meta-analysis; socioeconomic pathway; climate change; bioenergy; land use; model intercomparison; C63; C68; Q11; Q16; Q24; Q42; Q54

Citation Formats

von Lampe, Martin, Willenbockel, Dirk, Ahammad, Helal, Blanc, Elodie, Cai, Yongxia, Calvin, Katherine V., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heyhoe, Edwina, Kyle, G. Page, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Mason d'Croz, Daniel, Nelson, Gerald, Sands, Ronald, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, and van Meijl, Hans. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1111/agec.12086.
von Lampe, Martin, Willenbockel, Dirk, Ahammad, Helal, Blanc, Elodie, Cai, Yongxia, Calvin, Katherine V., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heyhoe, Edwina, Kyle, G. Page, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Mason d'Croz, Daniel, Nelson, Gerald, Sands, Ronald, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, & van Meijl, Hans. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12086
von Lampe, Martin, Willenbockel, Dirk, Ahammad, Helal, Blanc, Elodie, Cai, Yongxia, Calvin, Katherine V., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heyhoe, Edwina, Kyle, G. Page, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Mason d'Croz, Daniel, Nelson, Gerald, Sands, Ronald, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, and van Meijl, Hans. 2013. "Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12086.
@article{osti_1158485,
title = {Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison},
author = {von Lampe, Martin and Willenbockel, Dirk and Ahammad, Helal and Blanc, Elodie and Cai, Yongxia and Calvin, Katherine V. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Heyhoe, Edwina and Kyle, G. Page and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Mason d'Croz, Daniel and Nelson, Gerald and Sands, Ronald and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Valin, Hugo and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and van Meijl, Hans},
abstractNote = {Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.},
doi = {10.1111/agec.12086},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1158485}, journal = {Agricultural Economics, 45(1):3-20},
issn = {0169-5150},
number = 1,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 02 00:00:00 EST 2013},
month = {Mon Dec 02 00:00:00 EST 2013}
}