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Title: Distributed Wind Diffusion Model Overview (Presentation)

Distributed wind market demand is driven by current and future wind price and performance, along with several non-price market factors like financing terms, retail electricity rates and rate structures, future wind incentives, and others. We developed a new distributed wind technology diffusion model for the contiguous United States that combines hourly wind speed data at 200m resolution with high resolution electricity load data for various consumer segments (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial), electricity rates and rate structures for utility service territories, incentive data, and high resolution tree cover. The model first calculates the economics of distributed wind at high spatial resolution for each market segment, and then uses a Bass diffusion framework to estimate the evolution of market demand over time. The model provides a fundamental new tool for characterizing how distributed wind market potential could be impacted by a range of future conditions, such as electricity price escalations, improvements in wind generator performance and installed cost, and new financing structures. This paper describes model methodology and presents sample results for distributed wind market potential in the contiguous U.S. through 2050.
Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1150163
Report Number(s):
NREL/PR-5000-62341
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at SOLAR 2014, 6-10 July 2014, San Francisco, California; Related Information: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind and Water Power Technologies Office
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; DISTRIBUTED WIND; MARKET DIFFUSION; WIND PERFORMANCE; WIND DIFFUSION MODEL; NREL