An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change
This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automated combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.
- Publication Date:
- OSTI Identifier:
- Report Number(s):
- DOE Contract Number:
- Resource Type:
- Technical Report
- Research Org:
- University of California, San Diego
- Sponsoring Org:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; weather/climate models, weather predictions, climate projections, ensemble modeling, imperfect models
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