Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

Conference · Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2014

OSTI ID:1133580

Nutaro, James J ^[1]; Ozmen, Ozgur ^[1]; Schryver, Jack C ^[1]

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1. ORNL

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate the importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
• DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1133580
• Resource Relation: Conference: Summer Simulation Multi-conference, Monterey, CA, USA, 20140706, 20140710
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English