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Title: Uncertainty quantification for the impact of injection rate fluctuation on the geomechanical response of geological carbon sequestration

We present an analysis of the geomechanical effects of injection rate fluctuations for geological sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2). Initially, we present analytical solutions for the effects of injection rate fluctuations on CO2 fluid pressure spatial distribution and temporal evolution for a typical injection scenario. Numerical calculations are performed using a finite element method to investigate the effects of injection rate fluctuations on geomechanical deformation, stresses, and potential failure of the aquifer and caprock layers. The numerical method was first validated by the fluid pressure distribution’s good agreement with the analytical solution. It was shown that for any Gaussian fluctuations of injection rate Q with given mean Q and variance ε_Q, the coefficients of variance for fluid pressure (ϵ_p=ε_p ), deformation (ϵ_u=ε_u ), and stresses (ϵ_σ=ε_σ ) increase linearly with the coefficient of variance for injection rate (ϵ_Q=ε_Q ). The proportional constants are identified, and the fluctuations have the most pronounced effect on the geomechanical stresses, and, therefore, on the potential failure of the aquifer and caprock layers. Instead of expensive computational simulation, this study provides an efficient tool to estimate the geomechanical response variance to injection rate fluctuation. A failure analysis was presented based on the numerical results, wheremore » probability of failure was estimated for fluctuating injection rates with different mean and variance during the entire injection period. It was found that with increasing injection rate fluctuation, the failure probability increases significantly. Therefore, the risk associated with injection rate fluctuations should be carefully evaluated.« less
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control; Journal Volume: 20; Journal Issue: C
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States