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Title: Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

Abstract

Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1130214
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-96186
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Agricultural Economics, 45(1):103-116
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Agricultural Economics, 45(1):103-116
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison

Citation Formats

Lotze-Campen, Hermann, von Lampe, Martin, Kyle, G. Page, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, van Meijl, Hans, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Popp, Alexander, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, Willenbockel, Dirk, and Wise, Marshall A. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1111/agec.12092.
Lotze-Campen, Hermann, von Lampe, Martin, Kyle, G. Page, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, van Meijl, Hans, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Popp, Alexander, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, Willenbockel, Dirk, & Wise, Marshall A. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12092
Lotze-Campen, Hermann, von Lampe, Martin, Kyle, G. Page, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, van Meijl, Hans, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Popp, Alexander, Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, Willenbockel, Dirk, and Wise, Marshall A. 2014. "Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12092.
@article{osti_1130214,
title = {Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison},
author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and von Lampe, Martin and Kyle, G. Page and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and van Meijl, Hans and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Popp, Alexander and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Valin, Hugo and Willenbockel, Dirk and Wise, Marshall A.},
abstractNote = {Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.},
doi = {10.1111/agec.12092},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1130214}, journal = {Agricultural Economics, 45(1):103-116},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}