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Title: Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation properties was developed to systematically evaluate and compare the impacts of those properties on geomechanical responses to CO2 injection. A coupled hydro-geomechanical subsurface transport simulator, STOMP (Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases), was adopted to simulate the CO2 migration process and geomechanical behaviors of the surrounding geological formations. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample a high-dimensional parameter space consisting of injection rate and 14 subsurface formation properties, including porosity, permeability, entry pressure, irreducible gas and aqueous saturation, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio for both reservoir and caprock. Generalized cross-validation and analysis of variance methods were used to quantitatively measure the significance of the 15 input parameters. Reservoir porosity, permeability, and injection rate were found to be among the most significant factors affecting the geomechanical responses to the CO2 injection. We used a quadrature generalized linear model to build a reduced-order model that can estimate the geomechanical response instantly instead of running computationally expensive numerical simulations.
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 2152-3878
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Greenhouse Gases: science and technology, 3(5):338-358; Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 5
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States
CO2 geological sequestration; uncertainty quantification; sensitivity analysis; reduced-order model