Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint
Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
- Publication Date:
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- DOE Contract Number:
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- Resource Relation:
- Conference: To be presented at 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, 21-22 October 2013, London, England
- Research Org:
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO.
- Sponsoring Org:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY GRID INTEGRATION; RAMPS; RESPONSE SURFACE; SOLAR FORECASTING; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; VARIABILITY; Solar Energy - Thermal
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