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Title: Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
Authors:
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1114086
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5000-60142
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: To be presented at 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, 21-22 October 2013, London, England
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO.
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY GRID INTEGRATION; RAMPS; RESPONSE SURFACE; SOLAR FORECASTING; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; VARIABILITY; Solar Energy - Thermal