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Title: Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.
Authors:
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1107451
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5D00-60228
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: To be presented at the 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, 22-24 October 2013, London, England
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO.
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind and Water Power Technologies Office
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY WIND FORECASTING; RELIABILITY; POWER SYSTEMS; UNCERTAINTY; VARIABILITY; NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY; NREL; Wind Energy