Near-Term Climate Mitigation by Short-Lived Forcers
Emissions reductions focused on anthropogenic climate forcing agents with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have been suggested as a strategy to reduce the rate of climate change over the next several decades. We find that reductions of methane and BC would likely have only a modest impact on near-term climate warming. Even with maximally feasible reductions phased in from 2015 to 2035, global mean temperatures in 2050 are reduced by 0.16 °C, with an uncertainty range of 0.04-0.36°C, with the high end of this range only possible if total historical aerosol forcing is small. More realistic mitigation scenarios would likely provide a smaller climate benefit. The climate benefits from targeted reductions in short-lived forcing agents are smaller than previously estimated and are not substantially different in magnitude from the benefits due to a comprehensive climate policy.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1091994
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-95938; 400408000
- Journal Information:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(35):14202-14206, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(35):14202-14206
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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