Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/LANL
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1044115
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-12-22329; TRN: US201214%%317
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 17th Annual CESM Workshop ; 2012-06-18 - 2012-06-21 ; Breckenridge, Colorado, United States
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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