Disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability and Bayesian treatment of uncensored results
In making low-level radioactivity measurements of populations, it is commonly observed that a substantial portion of net results are negative. Furthermore, the observed variance of the measurement results arises from a combination of measurement uncertainty and population variability. This paper presents a method for disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability to produce a probability density function (PDF) of possibly true results. To do this, simple, justifiable, and reasonable assumptions are made about the relationship of the measurements to the measurands (the 'true values'). The measurements are assumed to be unbiased, that is, that their average value is the average of the measurands. Using traditional estimates of each measurement's uncertainty to disaggregate population variability from measurement uncertainty, a PDF of measurands for the population is produced. Then, using Bayes's theorem, the same assumptions, and all the data from the population of individuals, a prior PDF is computed for each individual's measurand. These PDFs are non-negative, and their average is equal to the average of the measurement results for the population. The uncertainty in these Bayesian posterior PDFs is all Berkson with no remaining classical component. The methods are applied to baseline bioassay data from the Hanford site. The data include 90Sr urinalysis measurements on 128 people, 137Cs in vivo measurements on 5,337 people, and 239Pu urinalysis measurements on 3,270 people. The method produces excellent results for the 90Sr and 137Cs measurements, since there are nonzero concentrations of these global fallout radionuclides in people who have not been occupationally exposed. The method does not work for the 239Pu measurements in non-occupationally exposed people because the population average is essentially zero.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1038640
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-75092; RPDODE; TRN: US1201934
- Journal Information:
- Radiation Protection Dosimetry, Vol. 149, Issue 3; ISSN 0144-8420
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
BIOASSAY
GLOBAL FALLOUT
IN VIVO
PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS
QUALITATIVE CHEMICAL ANALYSIS
RADIOACTIVITY
RADIOISOTOPES
URINE
Statistical methods
Bayesian statistics
uncertainty
variability
bioassay
urinalysis
strontium-90
cesium-137
plutonium
background radiation
environmental radioactivity