Characterization and Impact of Extreme Forecast Errors on Power Systems
Extreme events in the electrical power system, caused by the load and wind forecasting errors, can impact the power system infrastructure via two main avenues. The first avenue is a sudden and significant power unbalance exceeding reasonable operating reserve capacity. The second is a sudden increase of power flows on the system critical paths causing transmission violations. The challenge in managing these system unbalances is more significant for a standalone balancing area operation. The consolidation of balancing authorities into a single balancing area can offset the operating reserve problem but this strategy enhances incremental power flows on the transmission interfaces, potentially leading to more unpredictable transmission congestion. This paper evaluates the expectancy of occurrence of tail events due to forecast error extremes using California ISO and BPA data. Having this type of information, independent system operators and operating utilities could be better prepared to address the tail events by exploring alternative reserve options such as: wide area control coordination, new operating proce-dures and remedial actions.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1036079
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-72487; EPSRDN; EB2502010; TRN: US201205%%590
- Journal Information:
- Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 39, Issue 15; ISSN 0378-7796
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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