Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways
In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000-2100 simulations with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We show that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP3PD and RCP4.5) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 and 2100. Surface ozone in 2100 is projected to change little compared from 2000 conditions, a much-reduced impact from the projections based on the A2 scenario. Aerosols are projected to strongly decrease in the 21st century, a reflection of their projected decrease in emissions. Similarly, sulfate deposition is projected to strongly decrease. However, nitrogen deposition is projected to increase over certain regions because of the projected increase NH3 emissions.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1029059
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-75023; CLCHDX; KP1703030; TRN: US201122%%690
- Journal Information:
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2; ISSN 0165-0009
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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