Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Bowling, Laura C; Cherkauer, Keith; Pal, Jeremy; Diffenbaugh, Noah

doi:10.1029/2009JD012965

Title: Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report concludes that climate change is now unequivocal, and associated increases in evaporation and atmospheric water content could intensify the hydrological cycle. However, the biases and coarse spatial resolution of global climate models limit their usefulness in hydrological impact assessment. In order to reduce these limitations, we use a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) to drive a hydrological model (variable infiltration capacity) for the full contiguous United States. The simulations cover 1961-1990 in the historic period and 2071-2100 in the future (A2) period. A quantile-based bias correction technique is applied to the times series of RegCM3-simulated precipitation and temperature. Our results show that biases in the RegCM3 fields not only affect the magnitude of hydrometeorological variables in the baseline hydrological simulation, but they also affect the response of hydrological variables to projected future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. Further, we find that changes in the intensity and occurrence of severe wet and hot events are critical in determining the sign of hydrologic change. These results have important implications for the assessment of potential future hydrologic changes, as well as for developing approaches for quantitative impacts assessment.

Authors:

Ashfaq, Moetasim ^[1]; Bowling, Laura C ^[2]; Cherkauer, Keith ^[2]; Pal, Jeremy ^[3]; Diffenbaugh, Noah ^[4]

ORNL
Purdue University
Loyola University
Stanford University

Publication Date:: Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1024308

DOE Contract Number:: DE-AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:: Journal Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Geophysical Research

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 115; Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CAPACITY; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; EVAPORATION; GREENHOUSE GASES; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATION; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; Hydrological Modeling; Climate Change Impacts; Climate Extremes

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                    Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bowling, Laura C, Cherkauer, Keith, Pal, Jeremy, and Diffenbaugh, Noah. Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States.  United States: N. p., 2010. 
        Web.  doi:10.1029/2009JD012965.

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                    Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bowling, Laura C, Cherkauer, Keith, Pal, Jeremy, & Diffenbaugh, Noah. Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012965

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                    Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bowling, Laura C, Cherkauer, Keith, Pal, Jeremy, and Diffenbaugh, Noah. 2010.  
        "Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012965.

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@article{osti_1024308,

  title        = {Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States},

  author       = {Ashfaq, Moetasim and Bowling, Laura C and Cherkauer, Keith and Pal, Jeremy and Diffenbaugh, Noah},

  abstractNote = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report concludes that climate change is now unequivocal, and associated increases in evaporation and atmospheric water content could intensify the hydrological cycle. However, the biases and coarse spatial resolution of global climate models limit their usefulness in hydrological impact assessment. In order to reduce these limitations, we use a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) to drive a hydrological model (variable infiltration capacity) for the full contiguous United States. The simulations cover 1961-1990 in the historic period and 2071-2100 in the future (A2) period. A quantile-based bias correction technique is applied to the times series of RegCM3-simulated precipitation and temperature. Our results show that biases in the RegCM3 fields not only affect the magnitude of hydrometeorological variables in the baseline hydrological simulation, but they also affect the response of hydrological variables to projected future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. Further, we find that changes in the intensity and occurrence of severe wet and hot events are critical in determining the sign of hydrologic change. These results have important implications for the assessment of potential future hydrologic changes, as well as for developing approaches for quantitative impacts assessment.},

  doi          = {10.1029/2009JD012965},

  url          = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1024308},
  journal      = {Journal of Geophysical Research},

  issn         = {0148-0227},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 115,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010},

  month        = {Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010}

}

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