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Title: Using System Dynamics to Model the Transition to Biofuels in the United States

Today, the U.S. consumes almost 21 million barrels of crude oil per day; approximately 60% of the U.S. demand is supplied by imports. The transportation sector alone accounts for two-thirds of U.S. petroleum use. Biofuels, liquid fuels produced from domestically-grown biomass, have the potential to displace about 30% of current U.S. gasoline consumption. Transitioning to a biofuels industry on this scale will require the creation of a robust biomass-to-biofuels system-of-systems that operates in concert with the existing agriculture, forestry, energy, and transportation markets. The U.S. Department of Energy is employing a system dynamics approach to investigate potential market penetration scenarios for cellulosic ethanol, and to aid decision makers in focusing government actions on the areas with greatest potential to accelerate the deployment of biofuels and ultimately reduce the nationpsilas dependence on imported oil.
Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1023060
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: [Proceedings] 2008 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE), 2-4 June 2008, Singapore; Related Information: For preprint version, see NREL/CP-150-43153
Publisher:
Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO.
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
09 BIOMASS FUELS; AGRICULTURE; BIOFUELS; BIOMASS; CELLULOSIC ETHANOL; FOCUSING; FORESTRY; GASOLINE; IMPORTS; LIQUID FUELS; MARKET; PETROLEUM; TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Energy Analysis