Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil
Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist`s choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 10124516
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9108232-1; ON: DE93005776
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Ecological Society of America meeting,Houston, TX (United States),4-8 Aug 1991; Other Information: PBD: 9 Nov 1992
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change
Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change