An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.
This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to an aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 1005385
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2003-3378J; TRN: US201105%%262
- Journal Information:
- Proposed for publication in SIMULATION: Transaction of the Society International for Computer Simulation. Special issue on air traffic simulation., Vol. 80, Issue 1; ISSN 0037-5497
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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