The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast
Abstract
The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries intomore »
- Authors:
-
[2];
[4];
[1]
- Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)
- North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)
- Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1841702
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-161485
Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; 1639268(T2); 1740082(T1)
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Hill, Joy, Kern, Jordan, Rupp, David E., Voisin, Nathalie, and Characklis, Gregory. The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1029/2021ef002400.
Hill, Joy, Kern, Jordan, Rupp, David E., Voisin, Nathalie, & Characklis, Gregory. The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002400
Hill, Joy, Kern, Jordan, Rupp, David E., Voisin, Nathalie, and Characklis, Gregory. Tue .
"The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002400. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1841702.
@article{osti_1841702,
title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast},
author = {Hill, Joy and Kern, Jordan and Rupp, David E. and Voisin, Nathalie and Characklis, Gregory},
abstractNote = {The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.},
doi = {10.1029/2021ef002400},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 12,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2021},
month = {Tue Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2021}
}
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