Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California
Abstract
Abstract This study focuses on quantifying future anthropogenic changes in surface runoff associated with extreme precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada. The method involves driving a land surface model with output from a high resolution regional atmospheric simulation of the most extreme atmospheric rivers (ARs). AR events were selected from an ensemble of global climate model simulations of historical and late 21st century climate under the “high‐emission” RCP8.5 scenario. Average precipitation during the future ARs increases by ~25% but a much lower proportion falls as snow. The resulting future runoff increase is dramatic—nearly 50%, reflecting both the precipitation increase and simultaneous conversion of snow to rain. The “double whammy” impact on runoff is largest in the 2,000–2,500 m elevation band, where the snowfall loss and precipitation increase are both especially large. This huge increase in runoff during the most extreme AR events could present major flood control challenges for the region.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3]
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1802549
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1647279
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0014061; SC0016438; SC0016605; DE‐SC0016605; DE‐SC0016438; DE‐SC0014061
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 47; Journal Issue: 16; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geology; extreme atmospheric rivers; flooding risk; Sierra Nevada; mountainous snowpack; hydrological impacts; climate warming
Citation Formats
Huang, Xingying, Stevenson, Samantha, and Hall, Alex D. Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2020gl088679.
Huang, Xingying, Stevenson, Samantha, & Hall, Alex D. Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088679
Huang, Xingying, Stevenson, Samantha, and Hall, Alex D. Mon .
"Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088679. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1802549.
@article{osti_1802549,
title = {Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California},
author = {Huang, Xingying and Stevenson, Samantha and Hall, Alex D.},
abstractNote = {Abstract This study focuses on quantifying future anthropogenic changes in surface runoff associated with extreme precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada. The method involves driving a land surface model with output from a high resolution regional atmospheric simulation of the most extreme atmospheric rivers (ARs). AR events were selected from an ensemble of global climate model simulations of historical and late 21st century climate under the “high‐emission” RCP8.5 scenario. Average precipitation during the future ARs increases by ~25% but a much lower proportion falls as snow. The resulting future runoff increase is dramatic—nearly 50%, reflecting both the precipitation increase and simultaneous conversion of snow to rain. The “double whammy” impact on runoff is largest in the 2,000–2,500 m elevation band, where the snowfall loss and precipitation increase are both especially large. This huge increase in runoff during the most extreme AR events could present major flood control challenges for the region.},
doi = {10.1029/2020gl088679},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 16,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 10 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Mon Aug 10 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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