A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming
Abstract
Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4];
[5];
[1]
- University of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- University of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom); École normale supérieure (ENS), Paris (France); Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Guyancourt (France). Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD); Paris Sciences et Lettres University, Paris (France); Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France); Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau (France); Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); European Union (EU); Swedish Research Council (SRC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1798740
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; NE/R015791/1; 821003; 641816
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Varney, Rebecca M., Chadburn, Sarah E., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Burke, Eleanor J., Koven, Charles D., Hugelius, Gustaf, and Cox, Peter M. A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8.
Varney, Rebecca M., Chadburn, Sarah E., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Burke, Eleanor J., Koven, Charles D., Hugelius, Gustaf, & Cox, Peter M. A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8
Varney, Rebecca M., Chadburn, Sarah E., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Burke, Eleanor J., Koven, Charles D., Hugelius, Gustaf, and Cox, Peter M. Mon .
"A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798740.
@article{osti_1798740,
title = {A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming},
author = {Varney, Rebecca M. and Chadburn, Sarah E. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Burke, Eleanor J. and Koven, Charles D. and Hugelius, Gustaf and Cox, Peter M.},
abstractNote = {Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 02 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Mon Nov 02 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
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Works referencing / citing this record:
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