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Title: Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Abstract

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO2] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO2-responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO2]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. In this work, we synthesise theory and broad, multi-disciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO2] (iCO2) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industry. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO2-responses are high in comparison with experiments and theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO2-responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO2, albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents ofmore » global change.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [13];  [1]; ORCiD logo [14];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [1] more »; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [18]; ORCiD logo [19]; ORCiD logo [20];  [21]; ORCiD logo [22]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [16]; ORCiD logo [21]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [23]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [24]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [25]; ORCiD logo [16]; ORCiD logo [26];  [23]; ORCiD logo [27]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [28]; ORCiD logo [29]; ORCiD logo [30]; ORCiD logo [31]; ORCiD logo [32]; ORCiD logo [1];  [29]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [33]; ORCiD logo [34]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [35]; ORCiD logo [36]; ORCiD logo [37]; ORCiD logo [15]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [38]; ORCiD logo [39]; ORCiD logo [40]; ORCiD logo [41] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  3. Ludwig Maximilian Univ. of Munich, Munich (Germany)
  4. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF), Alexandria, VA (United States)
  5. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  6. Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
  7. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States)
  8. Western Sydney Univ., Penrith, NSW (Australia)
  9. School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  10. Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  11. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Front Royal, VA (United States); Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (Panama)
  12. Univ. of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Caserta CE (Italy)
  13. Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)
  14. Aix‐Marseille Univ. (France); Swiss Federal Inst. for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf (Switzerland)
  15. Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
  16. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere
  17. Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  18. Australian National Univ., Canberra, ACT (Australia)
  19. National Univ. of Singapore (Singapore); ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
  20. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  21. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  22. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  23. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  24. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
  25. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  26. Univ. of Basel (Switzerland)
  27. Auckland Univ. of Technology (New Zealand)
  28. Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States)
  29. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  30. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra (Australia). Land and Water; Australian Research Council (ARC), Canberra (Australia). Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
  31. Univ. Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) (Spain); CREAF, Barcelona (Spain)
  32. Ludwig Maximilian Univ. of Munich, Munich (Germany); Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  33. Umeå Univ. (Sweden)
  34. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  35. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  36. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  37. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  38. US Geological Survey, Arcata CA (United States)
  39. State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)
  40. Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States)
  41. Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Australian Research Council (ARC); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); European Research Council (ERC); Smithsonian's Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO); Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub; Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF); German Research Foundation (DFG); USDA; National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USGS
OSTI Identifier:
1765497
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1660527
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-814087
Journal ID: ISSN 0028-646X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; AC52-07NA27344; DP190101823; 80NSSC19M0103; 647204; NNH17AE86I; ERC-2013-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE; AC02-05CH11231; 2018-67012-31496
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
New Phytologist
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 229; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0028-646X
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; global carbon‐cycle; land‐atmosphere feedback; carbon dioxide; terrestrial ecosystems; free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE); CO2‐fertilisation hypothesis; CO2‐fertilization; beta factor

Citation Formats

Walker, Anthony P., De Kauwe, Martin G., Bastos, Ana, Belmecheri, Soumaya, Georgiou, Katerina, Keeling, Ralph F., McMahon, Sean M., Medlyn, Belinda E., Moore, David P., Norby, Richard J., Zaehle, Sönke, Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina J., Battipaglia, Giovanna, Brienen, Roel W., Cabugao, Kristine G., Cailleret, Maxime, Campbell, Elliott, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Craig, Matthew E., Ellsworth, David S., Farquhar, Graham D., Fatichi, Simone, Fisher, Joshua B., Frank, David C., Graven, Heather, Gu, Lianhong, Haverd, Vanessa, Heilman, Kelly, Heimann, Martin, Hungate, Bruce A., Iversen, Colleen M., Joos, Fortunat, Jiang, Mingkai, Keenan, Trevor F., Knauer, Jürgen, Körner, Christian, Leshyk, Victor O., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Liu, Yao, MacBean, Natasha, Malhi, Yadvinder, McVicar, Tim R., Penuelas, Josep, Pongratz, Julia, Powell, A. Shafer, Riutta, Terhi, Sabot, Manon B., Schleucher, Juergen, Sitch, Stephen, Smith, William K., Sulman, Benjamin, Taylor, Benton, Terrer, César, Torn, Margaret S., Treseder, Kathleen K., Trugman, Anna T., Trumbore, Susan E., Mantgem, Phillip J., Voelker, Steve L., Whelan, Mary E., and Zuidema, Pieter A. Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1111/nph.16866.
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Walker, Anthony P., De Kauwe, Martin G., Bastos, Ana, Belmecheri, Soumaya, Georgiou, Katerina, Keeling, Ralph F., McMahon, Sean M., Medlyn, Belinda E., Moore, David P., Norby, Richard J., Zaehle, Sönke, Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina J., Battipaglia, Giovanna, Brienen, Roel W., Cabugao, Kristine G., Cailleret, Maxime, Campbell, Elliott, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Craig, Matthew E., Ellsworth, David S., Farquhar, Graham D., Fatichi, Simone, Fisher, Joshua B., Frank, David C., Graven, Heather, Gu, Lianhong, Haverd, Vanessa, Heilman, Kelly, Heimann, Martin, Hungate, Bruce A., Iversen, Colleen M., Joos, Fortunat, Jiang, Mingkai, Keenan, Trevor F., Knauer, Jürgen, Körner, Christian, Leshyk, Victor O., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Liu, Yao, MacBean, Natasha, Malhi, Yadvinder, McVicar, Tim R., Penuelas, Josep, Pongratz, Julia, Powell, A. Shafer, Riutta, Terhi, Sabot, Manon B., Schleucher, Juergen, Sitch, Stephen, Smith, William K., Sulman, Benjamin, Taylor, Benton, Terrer, César, Torn, Margaret S., Treseder, Kathleen K., Trugman, Anna T., Trumbore, Susan E., Mantgem, Phillip J., Voelker, Steve L., Whelan, Mary E., & Zuidema, Pieter A. Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16866
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Walker, Anthony P., De Kauwe, Martin G., Bastos, Ana, Belmecheri, Soumaya, Georgiou, Katerina, Keeling, Ralph F., McMahon, Sean M., Medlyn, Belinda E., Moore, David P., Norby, Richard J., Zaehle, Sönke, Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina J., Battipaglia, Giovanna, Brienen, Roel W., Cabugao, Kristine G., Cailleret, Maxime, Campbell, Elliott, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Craig, Matthew E., Ellsworth, David S., Farquhar, Graham D., Fatichi, Simone, Fisher, Joshua B., Frank, David C., Graven, Heather, Gu, Lianhong, Haverd, Vanessa, Heilman, Kelly, Heimann, Martin, Hungate, Bruce A., Iversen, Colleen M., Joos, Fortunat, Jiang, Mingkai, Keenan, Trevor F., Knauer, Jürgen, Körner, Christian, Leshyk, Victor O., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Liu, Yao, MacBean, Natasha, Malhi, Yadvinder, McVicar, Tim R., Penuelas, Josep, Pongratz, Julia, Powell, A. Shafer, Riutta, Terhi, Sabot, Manon B., Schleucher, Juergen, Sitch, Stephen, Smith, William K., Sulman, Benjamin, Taylor, Benton, Terrer, César, Torn, Margaret S., Treseder, Kathleen K., Trugman, Anna T., Trumbore, Susan E., Mantgem, Phillip J., Voelker, Steve L., Whelan, Mary E., and Zuidema, Pieter A. Wed . "Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16866. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1765497.
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@article{osti_1765497,
title = {Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2},
author = {Walker, Anthony P. and De Kauwe, Martin G. and Bastos, Ana and Belmecheri, Soumaya and Georgiou, Katerina and Keeling, Ralph F. and McMahon, Sean M. and Medlyn, Belinda E. and Moore, David P. and Norby, Richard J. and Zaehle, Sönke and Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina J. and Battipaglia, Giovanna and Brienen, Roel W. and Cabugao, Kristine G. and Cailleret, Maxime and Campbell, Elliott and Canadell, Josep G. and Ciais, Philippe and Craig, Matthew E. and Ellsworth, David S. and Farquhar, Graham D. and Fatichi, Simone and Fisher, Joshua B. and Frank, David C. and Graven, Heather and Gu, Lianhong and Haverd, Vanessa and Heilman, Kelly and Heimann, Martin and Hungate, Bruce A. and Iversen, Colleen M. and Joos, Fortunat and Jiang, Mingkai and Keenan, Trevor F. and Knauer, Jürgen and Körner, Christian and Leshyk, Victor O. and Leuzinger, Sebastian and Liu, Yao and MacBean, Natasha and Malhi, Yadvinder and McVicar, Tim R. and Penuelas, Josep and Pongratz, Julia and Powell, A. Shafer and Riutta, Terhi and Sabot, Manon B. and Schleucher, Juergen and Sitch, Stephen and Smith, William K. and Sulman, Benjamin and Taylor, Benton and Terrer, César and Torn, Margaret S. and Treseder, Kathleen K. and Trugman, Anna T. and Trumbore, Susan E. and Mantgem, Phillip J. and Voelker, Steve L. and Whelan, Mary E. and Zuidema, Pieter A.},
abstractNote = {Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO2] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO2-responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO2]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. In this work, we synthesise theory and broad, multi-disciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO2] (iCO2) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industry. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO2-responses are high in comparison with experiments and theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO2-responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO2, albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.},
doi = {10.1111/nph.16866},
journal = {New Phytologist},
number = 5,
volume = 229,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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CO2 and temperature effects on morphological and physiological traits affecting risk of drought-induced mortality
journal, April 2018

Global and time-resolved monitoring of crop photosynthesis with chlorophyll fluorescence
journal, March 2014

  • Guanter, L.; Zhang, Y.; Jung, M.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 14
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The Ecology of Soil Carbon: Pools, Vulnerabilities, and Biotic and Abiotic Controls
journal, November 2017

Elevated CO2 does not increase eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil
journal, March 2017

  • Ellsworth, David S.; Anderson, Ian C.; Crous, Kristine Y.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 4
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The longevity of broadleaf deciduous trees in Northern Hemisphere temperate forests: insights from tree-ring series
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  • Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 3
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Atmospheric deposition, CO2, and change in the land carbon sink
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Carbon limitation in trees
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A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada's boreal forests
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  • Peng, Changhui; Ma, Zhihai; Lei, Xiangdong
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 9
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Global Carbon Budget 2018
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A matter of tree longevity
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Effects of rising temperatures and [CO 2 ] on the physiology of tropical forest trees
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Regulation of Water Use in Relation to Carbon Gain in Higher Plants
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Long-term CO 2 fertilization increases vegetation productivity and has little effect on hydrological partitioning in tropical rainforests : CO
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Optimal plant water economy: Optimal plant water economy
journal, October 2016

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  • Plant, Cell & Environment, Vol. 40, Issue 6
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Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones
journal, November 2019

  • Yu, Kailiang; Smith, William K.; Trugman, Anna T.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 49
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Biological stoichiometry of plant production: metabolism, scaling and ecological response to global change: Tansley review
journal, March 2010

Transcom 3 inversion intercomparison: Model mean results for the estimation of seasonal carbon sources and sinks: T3 SEASONAL RESULTS
journal, January 2004

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  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 18, Issue 1
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A tree-ring perspective on the terrestrial carbon cycle
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The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth
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  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 9
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Satellite based estimates underestimate the effect of CO2 fertilization on net primary productivity
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  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10
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Modelling carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial vegetation
journal, September 2018

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  • New Phytologist, Vol. 221, Issue 2
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Evaluating and comparing remote sensing terrestrial GPP models for their response to climate variability and CO2 trends
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Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements
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Responses of soil extracellular enzyme activities to experimental warming and CO2 enrichment at the alpine treeline
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Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise
journal, July 2013

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  • Nature, Vol. 499, Issue 7458
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Litter and Root Manipulations Provide Insights into Soil Organic Matter Dynamics and Stability
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Long-term carbon sink in Borneo’s forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects
journal, December 2017

Quantum Yields for CO 2 Uptake in C 3 and C 4 Plants : Dependence on Temperature, CO
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Stomatal conductance of forest species after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 concentration: a synthesis
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Growth of mature boreal Norway spruce was not affected by elevated [CO2] and/or air temperature unless nutrient availability was improved
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Soil carbon dioxide emissions from the Mojave desert: Isotopic evidence for a carbonate source: Abiotic Soil CO 2 Emissions
journal, January 2017

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Altered root traits due to elevated CO 2 : a meta-analysis : Root traits at elevated CO
journal, April 2013

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Temperature regulation of plant phenological development
journal, March 2015

Bioclimate and growth history affect beech lifespan in the I talian A lps and A pennines
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Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO 2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ?
journal, April 2015

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  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 4
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Nocturnal soil CO 2 uptake and its relationship to subsurface soil and ecosystem carbon fluxes in a Chihuahuan Desert shrubland: NOCTURNAL DESERT SOIL CO 2 UPTAKE
journal, December 2013

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  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 118, Issue 4
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Short-term carbon cycling responses of a mature eucalypt woodland to gradual stepwise enrichment of atmospheric CO 2 concentration
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Effect of increasing CO 2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle
journal, December 2014

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  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 2
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Fluxes all of the time? A primer on the temporal representativeness of FLUXNET: FLUXES ALL OF THE TIME?
journal, February 2017

  • Chu, Housen; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; John, Ranjeet
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 2
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Stomatal Conductance and Photosynthesis
journal, June 1982

Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems
journal, January 2016

Non-structural carbohydrate pools in a tropical forest
journal, December 2004

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  • Oecologia, Vol. 143, Issue 1
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Fertile forests produce biomass more efficiently: Forests’ biomass production efficiency
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Carbon dynamics of mature and regrowth tropical forests derived from a pantropical database (TropForC-db)
journal, March 2016

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  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 5
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SOIL NITROGEN CYCLING UNDER ELEVATED CO 2 : A SYNTHESIS OF FOREST FACE EXPERIMENTS
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A fiery wake-up call for climate science
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No carbon “bet hedging” in pine seedlings under prolonged summer drought and elevated CO 2
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Solar Radiation and Productivity in Tropical Ecosystems
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Central European hardwood trees in a high-CO 2 future: synthesis of an 8-year forest canopy CO 2 enrichment project
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Stomatal Control of Transpiration: Scaling Up from Leaf to Region
book, January 1986

Elevated CO 2 increases tree-level intrinsic water use efficiency: insights from carbon and oxygen isotope analyses in tree rings across three forest FACE sites
journal, December 2012

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  • New Phytologist, Vol. 197, Issue 2
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Optimal nitrogen allocation controls tree responses to elevated CO 2
journal, June 2007

A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species
journal, June 1980

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How to kill a tree: empirical mortality models for 18 species and their performance in a dynamic forest model
journal, February 2018

  • Hülsmann, Lisa; Bugmann, Harald; Cailleret, Maxime
  • Ecological Applications, Vol. 28, Issue 2
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Radiocarbon and Soil Carbon Dynamics
journal, May 2009

Applying the Concept of Ecohydrological Equilibrium to Predict Steady State Leaf Area Index
journal, August 2018

  • Yang, J.; Medlyn, B. E.; De Kauwe, M. G.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2017MS001169
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