Title: The implications of future climate change on the blue water footprint of hydropower in the contiguous US

Abstract

As the largest renewable energy source, hydropower is essential to the sustainability of the global energy market. However, a considerable amount of water can be lost in the form of evaporation from the associated multipurpose reservoirs, and hence enlarge the blue water footprint (BWF) of hydropower in a warming climate. To facilitate the sustainable management of both water and energy resources under the impact of climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS), the BWF values of 143 major multipurpose reservoirs were evaluated during the historical period (1985–2014) and two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099). The historical reservoir evaporation loss was calculated using the Landsat-based reservoir surface area and a new evaporation rate algorithm that considers the heat storage effect. Future projections of runoff availability, hydropower generation, and reservoir evaporation were estimated based on the downscaled climate model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It was found that the BWF for the CONUS is highly spatially heterogeneous, with an average value of 26.2 m³/MWh in the historical period. In the future, the BWF values are projected to increase under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This is especially noticeable under RCP 8.5,more » which has an average BWF value of 30.2 m³/MWh for 2070–2099 (increasing by 15.3% from 26.2 m³/MWh). The uncertainty ranges increase even more, from 3.4 m³/MWh during 2020–2049 to 5.7 m³/MWh during 2070–2099. These findings can benefit water and energy resources management in identifying suitable environmental, economic, operational, and investment strategies for multipurpose reservoirs in a changing environment.« less

Authors:

Zhao, Gang  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-2737-0530"

Gao, Huilin  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Gao, Huilin"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-7009-8005"

Kao, Shih-Chieh  ^[2]

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Kao, Shih-Chieh"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-3207-5328"

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Publication Date:

Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2021

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

OSTI Identifier:

1760131

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 16; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:

IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 13 HYDRO ENERGY