Title: The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO₂ reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

Abstract

China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m³or below for annual mean concentration of PM_2.5(particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO₂mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM_2.5target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO₂emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit frommore » improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO₂mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM_2.5exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.« less

Authors:

Xing, Jia ^[1]; Lu, Xi  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-5063-3776"

Wang, Shuxiao  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-9727-1963"

Wang, Tong ^[1]; Ding, Dian ^[1]; Yu, Sha  ^[2];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-2551-7458"

Shindell, Drew  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1552-4715"

Ou, Yang  ^[4];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-1889-6218"

Morawska, Lidia ^[5]; Li, Siwei ^[6]; Ren, Lu ^[1]; Zhang, Yuqiang  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-9161-7086"

Loughlin, Dan ^[7]; Zheng, Haotian ^[1]; Zhao, Bin ^[2]; Liu, Shuchang ^[1]; Smith, Kirk R.  ^[8];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-0439-1120"

Hao, Jiming ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing (China)
2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
3. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
5. Queensland Univ. of Technology, QLD (Australia)
6. Wuhan Univ. (China)
7. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
8. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Collaborative Clean Air Policy Centre, New Delhi (india)

Publication Date:

Mon Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2020

Research Org.:

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE; National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)

OSTI Identifier:

1734554

Report Number(s):

PNNL-ACT-SA-10507
Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-76RL01830; 2018YFC0213805; 21625701; 41907190; 51861135102; 71722003; 71974108; 71690244

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 117; Journal Issue: 47; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:

National Academy of Sciences

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; air quality; CO2; energy policy; cobenefit; China