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Title: Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Abstract

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ (0.22$$^{\circ }$$/jats:inline-formula>) versus 50$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ (0.44$$^{\circ }$$)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [2];  [4];  [2] more »;  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2]; ORCiD logo [5];  [6];  [7] « less
  1. Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg (Germany)
  2. The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy)
  3. The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy); National Inst. of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), Sgonico (Italy)
  4. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Climate Change Research Center; Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  6. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  7. Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology, Hong Kong (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1709111
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Regional climate change; IPCC reference regions; CORDEX; CORDEX-CORE

Citation Formats

Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, and Im, Eun-Soon. Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x.
Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, & Im, Eun-Soon. Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x
Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, and Im, Eun-Soon. Mon . "Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1709111.
@article{osti_1709111,
title = {Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble},
author = {Teichmann, Claas and Jacob, Daniela and Remedio, Armelle Reca and Remke, Thomas and Buntemeyer, Lars and Hoffmann, Peter and Kriegsmann, Arne and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Bülow, Katharina and Weber, Torsten and Sieck, Kevin and Rechid, Diana and Langendijk, Gaby S. and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Ciarlo`, James M. and Raffaele, Francesca and Giuliani, Graziano and Xuejie, Gao and Sines, Taleena Rae and Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham and Das, Sushant and Di Sante, Fabio and Pichelli, Emanuela and Glazer, Russel and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Bukovsky, Melissa and Im, Eun-Soon},
abstractNote = {The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22$^{\circ }$/jats:inline-formula>) versus 50$\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44$^{\circ }$)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 1,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Mon Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}

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