Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble
Abstract
The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ (0.22$$^{\circ }$$/jats:inline-formula>) versus 50$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ (0.44$$^{\circ }$$)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.
- Authors:
-
more »
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg (Germany)
- The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy)
- The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy); National Inst. of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), Sgonico (Italy)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Climate Change Research Center; Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology, Hong Kong (China)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1709111
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climate Dynamics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
- Publisher:
- Springer-Verlag
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Regional climate change; IPCC reference regions; CORDEX; CORDEX-CORE
Citation Formats
Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, and Im, Eun-Soon. Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x.
Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, & Im, Eun-Soon. Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x
Teichmann, Claas, Jacob, Daniela, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Remke, Thomas, Buntemeyer, Lars, Hoffmann, Peter, Kriegsmann, Arne, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Bülow, Katharina, Weber, Torsten, Sieck, Kevin, Rechid, Diana, Langendijk, Gaby S., Coppola, Erika, Giorgi, Filippo, Ciarlo`, James M., Raffaele, Francesca, Giuliani, Graziano, Xuejie, Gao, Sines, Taleena Rae, Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham, Das, Sushant, Di Sante, Fabio, Pichelli, Emanuela, Glazer, Russel, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Bukovsky, Melissa, and Im, Eun-Soon. Mon .
"Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1709111.
@article{osti_1709111,
title = {Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble},
author = {Teichmann, Claas and Jacob, Daniela and Remedio, Armelle Reca and Remke, Thomas and Buntemeyer, Lars and Hoffmann, Peter and Kriegsmann, Arne and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Bülow, Katharina and Weber, Torsten and Sieck, Kevin and Rechid, Diana and Langendijk, Gaby S. and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Ciarlo`, James M. and Raffaele, Francesca and Giuliani, Graziano and Xuejie, Gao and Sines, Taleena Rae and Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham and Das, Sushant and Di Sante, Fabio and Pichelli, Emanuela and Glazer, Russel and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Bukovsky, Melissa and Im, Eun-Soon},
abstractNote = {The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22$^{\circ }$/jats:inline-formula>) versus 50$\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44$^{\circ }$)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 1,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Mon Nov 09 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
Works referenced in this record:
The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board
(VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios
journal, September 2020
- Weber, T.; Bowyer, P.; Rechid, D.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 8, Issue 9
The CORDEX-Australasia ensemble: evaluation and future projections
journal, September 2020
- Evans, Jason P.; Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Hirsch, Annette L.
- Climate Dynamics
On a Test of Whether one of Two Random Variables is Stochastically Larger than the Other
journal, March 1947
- Mann, H. B.; Whitney, D. R.
- The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 18, Issue 1
Projected seasonal mean summer monsoon over India and adjoining regions for the twenty-first century
journal, November 2014
- Dash, Sushil K.; Mishra, Saroj K.; Pattnayak, Kanhu C.
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 122, Issue 3-4
How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO
journal, June 2013
- Teichmann, Claas; Eggert, Bastian; Elizalde, Alberto
- Atmosphere, Vol. 4, Issue 2
The ERA5 global reanalysis
journal, June 2020
- Hersbach, Hans; Bell, Bill; Berrisford, Paul
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 730
Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions
journal, December 2014
- McSweeney, C. F.; Jones, R. G.; Lee, R. W.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 11-12
Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5 °C Compared to +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C Global Warming
journal, March 2018
- Teichmann, Claas; Bülow, Katharina; Otto, Juliane
- Atmosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 4
Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM
journal, December 2000
- Pal, Jeremy S.; Small, Eric E.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 105, Issue D24
WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Gutowski Jr., William J.; Giorgi, Filippo; Timbal, Bertrand
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11
Design and performance of a new cloud microphysics scheme developed for the ECHAM general circulation model
journal, June 1996
- Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 12, Issue 8
The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
journal, March 2014
- Vautard, Robert; Gobiet, Andreas; Sobolowski, Stefan
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative
journal, November 2015
- Giorgi, Filippo; Gutowski, William J.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 40, Issue 1
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
journal, January 2018
- Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX $$0.11^{\circ }$$ 0 . 11 ∘ and $$0.44^{\circ }$$ 0 . 44 ∘ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
journal, June 2015
- Prein, A. F.; Gobiet, A.; Truhetz, H.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Issue 1-2
Multiscale precipitation variability over South America: Analysis of the added value of CORDEX RCM simulations
journal, February 2019
- Solman, Silvina A.; Blázquez, Josefina
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 3-4
A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles
journal, August 2020
- Ciarlo`, James M.; Coppola, Erika; Fantini, Adriano
- Climate Dynamics
Mapping model agreement on future climate projections: MAPPING MODEL AGREEMENT
journal, December 2011
- Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Knutti, Reto
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 23
A High Resolution Air Mass Transformation Model for Short-Range Weather Forecasting
journal, August 1990
- Holtslag, A. A. M.; De Bruijn, E. I. F.; Pan, H-L.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 118, Issue 8
Evidence of added value in North American regional climate model hindcast simulations using ever-increasing horizontal resolutions
journal, June 2016
- Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Winger, Katja
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 7-8
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
journal, January 2013
- Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3
RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains
journal, March 2012
- Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Solmon, F.
- Climate Research, Vol. 52
The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations
journal, January 2011
- Jones, C. D.; Hughes, J. K.; Bellouin, N.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 3
EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
journal, July 2013
- Jacob, Daniela; Petersen, Juliane; Eggert, Bastian
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 14, Issue 2
Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain
journal, September 2019
- Cavazos, Tereza; Luna‐Niño, Rosa; Cerezo‐Mota, Ruth
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 40, Issue 3
Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations
journal, June 2020
- Tangang, Fredolin; Chung, Jing Xiang; Juneng, Liew
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 55, Issue 5-6
Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO
journal, January 1997
- Jacob, D.; Podzun, R.
- Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 63, Issue 1-2
A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere
journal, September 1979
- Louis, Jean-Fran�ois
- Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity
journal, December 2010
- Watanabe, Masahiro; Suzuki, Tatsuo; O’ishi, Ryouta
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 23
Evaluation of New CORDEX Simulations Using an Updated Köppen–Trewartha Climate Classification
journal, November 2019
- Remedio, Armelle Reca; Teichmann, Claas; Buntemeyer, Lars
- Atmosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 11
Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations
journal, June 2020
- Ashfaq, Moetasim; Cavazos, Tereza; Reboita, Michelle Simões
- Climate Dynamics
Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset: UPDATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS OF MONTHLY CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS
journal, May 2013
- Harris, I.; Jones, P. D.; Osborn, T. J.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 3
Assessing the Transferability of the Regional Climate Model REMO to Different COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) Regions
journal, February 2012
- Jacob, Daniela; Elizalde, Alberto; Haensler, Andreas
- Atmosphere, Vol. 3, Issue 1
GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics
journal, October 2012
- Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 19
Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5: Climate Changes in MPI-ESM
journal, July 2013
- Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments: Land-Atmosphere Coupling in EURO-CORDEX
journal, January 2017
- Knist, Sebastian; Goergen, Klaus; Buonomo, Erasmo
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 1
A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models
journal, August 1989
- Tiedtke, M.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 117, Issue 8