Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives
Abstract
The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM,more »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1667382
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89243018SSC000007; 1852977; IA 1844590
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: 13; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Fasullo, John T., Phillips, A. S., and Deser, C. Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1024.1.
Fasullo, John T., Phillips, A. S., & Deser, C. Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1024.1
Fasullo, John T., Phillips, A. S., and Deser, C. Wed .
"Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1024.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1667382.
@article{osti_1667382,
title = {Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives},
author = {Fasullo, John T. and Phillips, A. S. and Deser, C.},
abstractNote = {The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-1024.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 13,
volume = 33,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Wed Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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