Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility
Abstract
Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~109 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometricmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[3];
[3];
[4]
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1660505
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1780743
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-806658
Journal ID: ISSN 1538-4357; 1011998; TRN: US2203521
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; LGF-19-600357; AST-1909641; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: The Astrophysical Journal (Online); Journal Volume: 897; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1538-4357
- Publisher:
- Institute of Physics (IOP)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; Stellar astronomy; Stellar populations; Black holes; Bayesian statistics; Time domain astronomy; Transient sources; Milky Way dark matter halo; Galactic bulge; Milky Way disk; Astronomy data modeling; Gravitational microlensing; Microlensing event rate
Citation Formats
Medford, Michael S., Lu, Jessica R., Dawson, William A., Lam, Casey Y., Golovich, Nathan R., Schlafly, Edward F., and Nugent, Peter. Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab9a4f.
Medford, Michael S., Lu, Jessica R., Dawson, William A., Lam, Casey Y., Golovich, Nathan R., Schlafly, Edward F., & Nugent, Peter. Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility. United States. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab9a4f
Medford, Michael S., Lu, Jessica R., Dawson, William A., Lam, Casey Y., Golovich, Nathan R., Schlafly, Edward F., and Nugent, Peter. Mon .
"Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility". United States. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab9a4f. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660505.
@article{osti_1660505,
title = {Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility},
author = {Medford, Michael S. and Lu, Jessica R. and Dawson, William A. and Lam, Casey Y. and Golovich, Nathan R. and Schlafly, Edward F. and Nugent, Peter},
abstractNote = {Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~109 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.},
doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ab9a4f},
journal = {The Astrophysical Journal (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 897,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jul 13 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Mon Jul 13 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 3 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Discovery of a bright microlensing event with planetary features towards the Taurus region: a super-Earth planet
journal, February 2018
- Nucita, A. A.; Licchelli, D.; De Paolis, F.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 476, Issue 3
Observation of microlensing toward the galactic spiral arms. EROS II 3 year survey
journal, July 2001
- Derue, F.; Afonso, C.; Alard, C.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 373, Issue 1
Maps of Dust Infrared Emission for Use in Estimation of Reddening and Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation Foregrounds
journal, June 1998
- Schlegel, David J.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.; Davis, Marc
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 500, Issue 2
The OGLE view of microlensing towards the Magellanic Clouds - III. Ruling out subsolar MACHOs with the OGLE-III LMC data★: OGLE-III view of microlensing towards the LMC
journal, January 2011
- Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Kozłowski, S.; Skowron, J.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 413, Issue 1
Candidate Microlensing Events from m31 Observations with the Loiano Telescope
journal, March 2009
- Novati, S. Calchi; Bozza, V.; De Paolis, F.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 695, Issue 1
Gravitational microlensing by the galactic halo
journal, May 1986
- Paczynski, B.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 304
The Initial‐Final Mass Relation: Direct Constraints at the Low‐Mass End
journal, March 2008
- Kalirai, Jasonjot S.; Hansen, Brad M. S.; Kelson, Daniel D.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 676, Issue 1
Primordial Black Hole Microlensing: The Einstein Crossing Time Distribution
journal, April 2019
- Lu, Jessica R.; Lam, Casey Y.; Medford, Michael
- Research Notes of the AAS, Vol. 3, Issue 4
The Zwicky Transient Facility: System Overview, Performance, and First Results
journal, December 2018
- Bellm, Eric C.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Graham, Matthew J.
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, Vol. 131, Issue 995
Updating the MACHO fraction of the Milky Way dark halowith improved mass models
journal, May 2018
- Calcino, Josh; García-Bellido, Juan; Davis, Tamara M.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 479, Issue 3
Korea Microlensing Telescope Network Microlensing Events from 2015: Event-finding Algorithm, Vetting, and Photometry
journal, January 2018
- Kim, D. -J.; Kim, H. -W.; Hwang, K. -H.
- The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 155, Issue 2
The Zwicky Transient Facility: Data Processing, Products, and Archive
journal, December 2018
- Masci, Frank J.; Laher, Russ R.; Rusholme, Ben
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, Vol. 131, Issue 995
Microlensing Optical Depth and Event Rate toward the Galactic Bulge from 8 yr of OGLE-IV Observations
journal, October 2019
- Mróz, Przemek; Udalski, Andrzej; Skowron, Jan
- The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, Vol. 244, Issue 2
Gravitational Microlensing in the Local Group
journal, September 1996
- Paczyński, Bohdan
- Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 34, Issue 1
The m31 Pixel Lensing plan Campaign: Macho Lensing and Self-Lensing Signals
journal, February 2014
- Calchi Novati, S.; Bozza, V.; Bruni, I.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 783, Issue 2
Extinction law in the range 0.4–4.8 μm and the 8620 Å DIB towards the stellar cluster Westerlund 1
journal, August 2016
- Damineli, A.; Almeida, L. A.; Blum, R. D.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 463, Issue 3
X-ray spectral modelling of the AGN obscuring region in the CDFS: Bayesian model selection and catalogue
journal, April 2014
- Buchner, J.; Georgakakis, A.; Nandra, K.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 564
Interpreting the candidate Galactic microlensing events
journal, October 1995
- Kerins, Eamonn J.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 276, Issue 3
PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events
journal, January 2020
- Lam, Casey Y.; Lu, Jessica R.; Hosek, Matthew W.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 889, Issue 1
A machine learning classifier for microlensing in wide-field surveys
journal, July 2019
- Godines, D.; Bachelet, E.; Narayan, G.
- Astronomy and Computing, Vol. 28
Microlensing constraints on primordial black holes with Subaru/HSC Andromeda observations
journal, April 2019
- Niikura, Hiroko; Takada, Masahiro; Yasuda, Naoki
- Nature Astronomy, Vol. 3, Issue 6
The James Webb Space Telescope
journal, November 2006
- Gardner, Jonathan P.; Mather, John C.; Clampin, Mark
- Space Science Reviews, Vol. 123, Issue 4
Transformations from Pan-STARRS1 and UBV Filters into ZTF Filters
journal, March 2020
- Medford, Michael S.; Lu, Jessica R.; Schlafly, Edward F.
- Research Notes of the AAS, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Galactic Bulge microlensing optical depth from EROS-2
journal, July 2006
- Hamadache, C.; Le Guillou, L.; Tisserand, P.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 454, Issue 1
Evidence for gravitational microlensing by dark objects in the Galactic halo
journal, October 1993
- Aubourg, E.; Bareyre, P.; Bréhin, S.
- Nature, Vol. 365, Issue 6447
Extending the MACHO search to about 10 exp 6 solar masses
journal, June 1992
- Gould, Andrew
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 392
Gravitational Microlensing Events from the First Year of the Northern Galactic Plane Survey by the Zwicky Transient Facility
journal, January 2020
- Mróz, Przemek; Street, R. A.; Bachelet, E.
- Research Notes of the AAS, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Confronting Models of Massive Star Evolution and Explosions with Remnant Mass Measurements
journal, March 2018
- Raithel, Carolyn A.; Sukhbold, Tuguldur; Özel, Feryal
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 856, Issue 1
The Microlensing Event rate and Optical Depth Toward the Galactic Bulge from Moa-Ii
journal, November 2013
- Sumi, T.; Bennett, D. P.; Bond, I. A.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 778, Issue 2
Blending of Light in Gravitational Microlensing Events
journal, July 1995
- Di Stefano, R.; Esin, A. A.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 448, Issue 1
MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics
journal, October 2009
- Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.; Bridges, M.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 398, Issue 4
Predictions of the WFIRST Microlensing Survey. I. Bound Planet Detection Rates
journal, February 2019
- Penny, Matthew T.; Scott Gaudi, B.; Kerins, Eamonn
- The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, Vol. 241, Issue 1
A synthetic view on structure and evolution of the Milky Way
journal, October 2003
- Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.; Derrière, S.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 409, Issue 2
Predictions for the Detection and Characterization of Galactic Disk Microlensing Events by LSST
journal, February 2019
- Sajadian, Sedighe; Poleski, Radosław
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 871, Issue 2
VVV Survey Microlensing: The Galactic Latitude Dependence
journal, January 2020
- Navarro, María Gabriela; Minniti, Dante; Pullen, Joyce
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 889, Issue 1
Statistical Searches for Microlensing Events in Large, Non-Uniformly Sampled Time-Domain Surveys: a test Using Palomar Transient Factory data
journal, January 2014
- Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Agüeros, Marcel A.; Fournier, Amanda P.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 781, Issue 1
Lens-Like Action of a star by the Deviation of Light in the Gravitational Field
journal, December 1936
- Einstein, A.
- Science, Vol. 84, Issue 2188
Microlensing Maps for the Milky Way Galaxy
journal, February 2002
- Evans, N. W.; Belokurov, V.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 567, Issue 2
The MACHO Project: Microlensing Results from 5.7 Years of Large Magellanic Cloud Observations
journal, October 2000
- Alcock, C.; Allsman, R. A.; Alves, D. R.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 542, Issue 1
A Search for Stellar-Mass Black Holes via Astrometric Microlensing
journal, October 2016
- Lu, J. R.; Sinukoff, E.; Ofek, E. O.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 830, Issue 1
Ogle-Iii Microlensing Events and the Structure of the Galactic Bulge
journal, January 2015
- Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Rynkiewicz, Alicja E.; Skowron, Jan
- The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, Vol. 216, Issue 1
Searching for intermediate-mass black holes in globular clusters with gravitational microlensing
journal, May 2016
- Kains, N.; Bramich, D. M.; Sahu, K. C.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 460, Issue 2
The EROS2 search for microlensing events towards the spiral arms: the complete seven season results
journal, April 2009
- Rahal, Y. R.; Afonso, C.; Albert, J. -N.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 500, Issue 3
Full orbital solution for the binary system in the northern Galactic disc microlensing event Gaia16aye
journal, January 2020
- Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Mróz, P.; Rybicki, K. A.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 633
Galaxia: a code to Generate a Synthetic Survey of the Milky way
journal, February 2011
- Sharma, Sanjib; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Johnston, Kathryn V.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 730, Issue 1
Microlensing Surveys for Exoplanets
journal, September 2012
- Gaudi, B. Scott
- Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 50, Issue 1
Nested sampling for general Bayesian computation
journal, December 2006
- Skilling, John
- Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 1, Issue 4
The Zwicky Transient Facility: Surveys and Scheduler
journal, April 2019
- Bellm, Eric C.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Barlow, Tom
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, Vol. 131, Issue 1000
On the accuracy of mass measurement for microlensing black holes as seen by Gaia and OGLE
journal, February 2018
- Rybicki, Krzysztof A.; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Klencki, Jakub
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 476, Issue 2
MOA-2009-BLG-387Lb: a massive planet orbiting an M dwarf
journal, April 2011
- Batista, V.; Gould, A.; Dieters, S.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 529
Core-Collapse Supernovae from 9 to 120 Solar Masses Based on Neutrino-Powered Explosions
journal, April 2016
- Sukhbold, Tuguldur; Ertl, T.; Woosley, S. E.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 821, Issue 1
Limits on the Macho content of the Galactic Halo from the EROS-2 Survey of the Magellanic Clouds
journal, April 2007
- Tisserand, P.; Le Guillou, L.; Afonso, C.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 469, Issue 2
First Resolution of Microlensed Images
journal, January 2019
- Dong, Subo; Mérand, A.; Delplancke-Ströbele, F.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 871, Issue 1
One or more bound planets per Milky Way star from microlensing observations
journal, January 2012
- Cassan, A.; Kubas, D.; Beaulieu, J. -P.
- Nature, Vol. 481, Issue 7380
The Gravitational Lens Effect
journal, September 1964
- Refsdal, S.; Bondi, H.
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 128, Issue 4
VVV Survey Microlensing Events in the Galactic Center Region
journal, December 2017
- Navarro, María Gabriela; Minniti, Dante; Ramos, Rodrigo Contreras
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 851, Issue 1
Unbound or distant planetary mass population detected by gravitational microlensing
journal, May 2011
- Collaboration, Ogle
- Nature, Vol. 473, Issue 7347, p. 349-352
No large population of unbound or wide-orbit Jupiter-mass planets
journal, July 2017
- Mróz, Przemek; Udalski, Andrzej; Skowron, Jan
- Nature, Vol. 548, Issue 7666
Limits on Galactic dark matter with 5 years of EROS SMC data
journal, March 2003
- Afonso, C.; Albert, J. N.; Andersen, J.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 400, Issue 3
MACHO Project Limits on Black Hole Dark Matter in the 1–30 [ITAL]M[/ITAL][TINF]⊙[/TINF] Range
journal, April 2001
- Alcock, C.; Allsman, R. A.; Alves, D. R.
- The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 550, Issue 2
The Zwicky Transient Facility Alert Distribution System
journal, November 2018
- Patterson, Maria T.; Bellm, Eric C.; Rusholme, Ben
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, Vol. 131, Issue 995