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Title: A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Abstract

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), humanmore » health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [4];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [3];  [3] more »;  [3];  [3];  [3];  [3];  [3];  [5] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Energy Research Inst. of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, Beijing (China)
  3. Rocky Mountain Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)
  4. Global Efficiency Intelligence, San Francisco, CA (United States)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1650054
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 239; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Zhou, Nan, Price, Lynn, Yande, Dai, Creyts, Jon, Khanna, Nina, Fridley, David, Lu, Hongyou, Feng, Wei, Liu, Xu, Hasanbeigi, Ali, Tian, Zhiyu, Yang, Hongwei, Bai, Quan, Zhu, Yuezhong, Xiong, Huawen, Zhang, Jianguo, Chrisman, Kate, Agenbroad, Josh, Ke, Yi, McIntosh, Robert, Mullaney, David, Stranger, Clay, Wanless, Eric, Wetzel, Daniel, Yee, Cyril, and Franconi, Ellen. A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154.
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Zhou, Nan, Price, Lynn, Yande, Dai, Creyts, Jon, Khanna, Nina, Fridley, David, Lu, Hongyou, Feng, Wei, Liu, Xu, Hasanbeigi, Ali, Tian, Zhiyu, Yang, Hongwei, Bai, Quan, Zhu, Yuezhong, Xiong, Huawen, Zhang, Jianguo, Chrisman, Kate, Agenbroad, Josh, Ke, Yi, McIntosh, Robert, Mullaney, David, Stranger, Clay, Wanless, Eric, Wetzel, Daniel, Yee, Cyril, & Franconi, Ellen. A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154
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Zhou, Nan, Price, Lynn, Yande, Dai, Creyts, Jon, Khanna, Nina, Fridley, David, Lu, Hongyou, Feng, Wei, Liu, Xu, Hasanbeigi, Ali, Tian, Zhiyu, Yang, Hongwei, Bai, Quan, Zhu, Yuezhong, Xiong, Huawen, Zhang, Jianguo, Chrisman, Kate, Agenbroad, Josh, Ke, Yi, McIntosh, Robert, Mullaney, David, Stranger, Clay, Wanless, Eric, Wetzel, Daniel, Yee, Cyril, and Franconi, Ellen. Fri . "A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1650054.
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@article{osti_1650054,
title = {A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030},
author = {Zhou, Nan and Price, Lynn and Yande, Dai and Creyts, Jon and Khanna, Nina and Fridley, David and Lu, Hongyou and Feng, Wei and Liu, Xu and Hasanbeigi, Ali and Tian, Zhiyu and Yang, Hongwei and Bai, Quan and Zhu, Yuezhong and Xiong, Huawen and Zhang, Jianguo and Chrisman, Kate and Agenbroad, Josh and Ke, Yi and McIntosh, Robert and Mullaney, David and Stranger, Clay and Wanless, Eric and Wetzel, Daniel and Yee, Cyril and Franconi, Ellen},
abstractNote = {As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154},
journal = {Applied Energy},
number = ,
volume = 239,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Fri Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Nonrenewable energy—environmental and health effects on human capital: empirical evidence from Pakistan
    journal, December 2019

    • Asghar, Muhammad Mansoor; Wang, Zhaohua; Wang, Bo
    • Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 27, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-06686-7

    Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition away from Coal in China
    journal, August 2020

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