DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Abstract

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1649155
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Accident Analysis and Prevention
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 145; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0001-4575
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; active traffic management; safety; injury severity; Bayesian modeling; variable speed limit; lane control signals

Citation Formats

Khattak, Zulqarnain H., and Fontaine, Michael D. A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544.
Khattak, Zulqarnain H., & Fontaine, Michael D. A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544
Khattak, Zulqarnain H., and Fontaine, Michael D. Tue . "A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1649155.
@article{osti_1649155,
title = {A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems},
author = {Khattak, Zulqarnain H. and Fontaine, Michael D.},
abstractNote = {Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.},
doi = {10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544},
journal = {Accident Analysis and Prevention},
number = 1,
volume = 145,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}

Works referenced in this record:

Analysis of driver injury severity levels at multiple locations using ordered probit models
journal, January 2003


Effects of excessive speeding and falling asleep while driving on crash injury severity in Ethiopia: A generalized ordered logit model analysis
journal, October 2014


Effects of truck traffic on crash injury severity on rural highways in Wyoming using Bayesian binary logit models
journal, August 2018

  • Ahmed, Mohamed M.; Franke, Rebecca; Ksaibati, Khaled
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 117
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.04.011

Investigation of factors affecting the injury severity of single-vehicle rollover crashes: A random-effects generalized ordered probit model
journal, September 2017

  • Anarkooli, Alireza Jafari; Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Kardar, Adele
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 106
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.07.008

Safety impact of using the hard shoulder during congested traffic. The case of a managed lane operation on a French urban motorway
journal, March 2013

  • Aron, Maurice; Seidowsky, RĂ©gine; Cohen, Simon
  • Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 28
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2010.12.006

Driver Response to Variable Speed Limits on I-66 in Northern Virginia
journal, June 2019

  • Boateng, Richard A.; Fontaine, Michael D.; Khattak, Zulqarnain H.
  • Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, Vol. 145, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1061/JTEPBS.0000236

An explanatory analysis of driver injury severity in rear-end crashes using a decision table/NaĂŻve Bayes (DTNB) hybrid classifier
journal, May 2016


Freeway crash risks evaluation by variable speed limit strategy using real-world traffic flow data
journal, October 2018


Safety effects of dynamic speed limits on motorways
journal, May 2018


Analyzing injury crashes using random-parameter bivariate regression models
journal, May 2016

  • Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B.; Nambisan, Shashi S.
  • Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, Vol. 12, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2016.1177134

Safety and Operational Effects of the Interstate 66 Active Traffic Management System
journal, March 2019

  • Dutta, Nancy; Boateng, Richard Atta; Fontaine, Michael D.
  • Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, Vol. 145, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1061/JTEPBS.0000220

The importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures
journal, September 2002


Examining traffic crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections
journal, August 2010


Analyzing pedestrian crash injury severity at signalized and non-signalized locations
journal, August 2015


The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects
journal, January 2005

  • Holdridge, Jason M.; Shankar, Venky N.; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F.
  • Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 36, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2004.12.005

Median barrier crash severity: Some new insights
journal, November 2010


Wrong-way driving crashes: A random-parameters ordered probit analysis of injury severity
journal, August 2018

  • Jalayer, Mohammad; Shabanpour, Ramin; Pour-Rouholamin, Mahdi
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 117
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.04.019

Injury Severity in Multivehicle Rear-End Crashes
journal, January 2001

  • Khattak, Asad J.
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1746, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.3141/1746-08

Using New Mode Choice Model Nesting Structures to Address Emerging Policy Questions: A Case Study of the Pittsburgh Central Business District
journal, November 2017

  • Khattak, Zulqarnain; Magalotti, Mark; Miller, John
  • Sustainability, Vol. 9, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.3390/su9112120

Evaluating the impact of adaptive signal control technology on driver stress and behavior using real-world experimental data
journal, October 2018

  • Khattak, Zulqarnain H.; Fontaine, Michael D.; Boateng, Richard A.
  • Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Vol. 58
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.trf.2018.06.006

Investigating Cybersecurity Issues in Active Traffic Management Systems
journal, July 2018

  • Khattak, Zulqarnain H.; Park, Hyungjun; Hong, Seongah
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2672, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1177/0361198118787636

Crash severity effects of adaptive signal control technology: An empirical assessment with insights from Pennsylvania and Virginia
journal, March 2019

  • Khattak, Zulqarnain H.; Fontaine, Michael D.; Smith, Brian L.
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 124
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.01.008

Driver injury severity: an application of ordered probit models
journal, May 2002


What are the differences in driver injury outcomes at highway-rail grade crossings? Untangling the role of pre-crash behaviors
journal, December 2015


Modeling school bus seat belt usage: Nested and mixed logit approaches
journal, March 2013


Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: An exploratory empirical analysis
journal, January 2008

  • Milton, John C.; Shankar, Venky N.; Mannering, Fred L.
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 40, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.06.006

Gender differences in injury severity risks in crashes at signalized intersections
journal, July 2011


Hierarchical Bayesian Estimation of Safety Performance Functions for Two-Lane Highways Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Modeling
journal, May 2005


Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit
journal, October 2002

  • Spiegelhalter, David J.; Best, Nicola G.; Carlin, Bradley P.
  • Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), Vol. 64, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1111/1467-9868.00353

Safety impacts of signal-warning flashers and speed control at high-speed signalized intersections
journal, May 2013


Analyzing freeway crash severity using a Bayesian spatial generalized ordered logit model with conditional autoregressive priors
journal, June 2019


Motor vehicle drivers’ injuries in train–motor vehicle crashes
journal, January 2015